Trump tariffs will batter UK economy even if Starmer strikes deal, grim new forecast warns: Live

If we look at the US market opening in a few hours, while most of the most important names sank in early trading yesterday, there was a significant setback later that day.

In the end, the S&P 500 closed about 0.5 percent higher, and several technical names see that share price increases in advance trading are rising.

There is still time to change here, but Tesla is ready to make up 3.5 percent, Nvidia 1.1 percent on, alphabet 0.7 percent on, Microsoft and Amazon are flat.

Opportunist buying at lower prices, or is optimism about a lower tariff impact that is slowly coming back?

‘Sensitive areas’, such as food standards, will be a ‘red line’ in the UK economic discussions with the US, but the plans for a digital services tax on US technical firms may be on the table, the operating secretary suggested.

After the newspaper spoke to Times Radio, the British Minsters have already admitted that their plans for digital services will abandon their talks with US peers, Jonathan Reynolds said: ‘There are sensitive areas you can’t go to.

‘Other countries understand that the regime we are implementing in the UK, which we call our SPS [Sanitary and Phytosanitary] Regime, which is our food standards -regime, is a red line for us. This is a very important area we cannot negotiate, and the US understands the position as other countries. “

While a “tax on digital services” – whereby global technical firms “pay a tax rate in the UK that is proportional in Britain,” is “an important principle,” Mr. Reyndods said, he added: ‘But how we achieve it – we always wanted to reach it on an international basis.

‘Tax on digital services in itself was a temporary imposition instead of a larger international agreement. How we do it is something we can talk to any country in the world. ‘

The times Monday night reports that UK ministers were particularly frustrated to learn that Britain would be hit by US rates this week because they believed that an economic agreement – including concessions on a tax and agriculture for digital services, but none of the food hygiene standards were ready to go.

It’s not just the FTSE that was off yesterday; The S&P 500 has been lower by more than 5 percent over the past month and the Nasdaq sits on -8.2 percent over the same timeframe.

However, all the sale does not mean that money is only in bank accounts; Traders and investors usually want to trade or invest, and do not maintain full liquid or cash positions.

So they are looking for alternative assets. Crude oil has risen by about 2.5 percent over the past month, but the right winner was gold. The price of gold futures-which follows the price of perceived secure Haven bullying-has risen to over $ 3,150, with new highlights of all time being set every day.

Gold has risen by more than 21 percent since the beginning of 2025. Analysts provide a continuation along the way to about $ 3,300 by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs economists have downgraded their expectations of British growth as Britain must be hit by Donald Trump’s trading tariffs.

Even if ministers ensure the economic agreement they are looking for with the US, Goldman Sachs analysts said they still expect the UK’s GDP to have a greater hit than previously expected as a result of “greater negative distribution” of the trade tariffs charged against the European Union.

As a result, the bank now expects 0.8 percent of UK growth this year and 1.2 percent in 2026 – lower than 0.9 and 1.3 respectively.

The head of European economist, Sven Jari Stehn of the bank, said by The telegraph: “Even though the direct hit after GDP from lower exports to the US is modest, the overall attire on the British growth of trade fragmentation is probably greater.

“The larger US rates on other economies included in our new baseline imply a greater growth in the US and the euro area, which should lead to greater negative distribution to the UK.”

According to the Office for National Statistics, the chart below has been the British quarterly growth since the end of 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics:

The European Union will be ready to repay against US trade tariffs with strong countermeasures, if necessary, said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.

“Our goal is a negotiated solution. But of course, if necessary, we will protect our interests, our people and our businesses,” said Ms von der Leyen in a speech in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

“We don’t necessarily want to repay again. But if necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it. ‘

The approaching increase in national assurance of employers has an ‘big impact’ on young people looking for work, Kemi Badenoch said.

Supermarkets have “work” and hairdressers cannot afford to tackle new staff, the leader of the Conservative Party said before the contributions of the national insurance on April 6.

She told LBC: “The rise in the threshold for where you pay national insurance has meant that many people who didn’t cost much to hire now – it has a huge impact on young people.

“People who tackle apprentices have stopped. So hair salons were one of the most shouting businesses that they just couldn’t afford to tackle new staff.

“And it affects sectors like that, hospitality, anyone who accepts young people will be badly affected. But the truth is that everyone is influenced. The supermarkets cast off work.

‘Many people say that if they are going to afford such a high wage bill, they or pay wages, stop renting, and in some extreme cases just stop the business completely. “

Research from Aston Business School puts the economic impact of rates at $ 1.4TRN-if it is a full-scale trade war.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds may feel that the UK has been unique to get the best transaction from any country, but that does not mean that it will escape completely intact.

Professor Jun du, of the Aston Business School, said: “The picture for tariff measures is not clear at the moment, but what is clear is that economies such as the UK should plan for different events and put in place mitigating measures.

“US rates offer the UK a possible fortune by deductions of trade, but these profits may complicate efforts to restore relations between the British and the EU, which strengthened economic divergence, political distrust and malomaising.”

The hope that the UK could avoid Donald Trump’s rates allegedly collapsed last Thursday at a meeting in which US negotiators made it clear that there would be no exemption.

According to The timesUS negotiators have made it clear that Mr. Trump wants to make a “big bang” with his expected announcement of rates on all the trade partners of Washington – which the US president considered ‘Liberation Day’.

“They want to make a theater of it,” said one source of government. “They want the consistency to say that they did everything on the same day. This is a big challenge for us. “

Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts for Mr. To persuade Trump not to impose in a phone call in a phone call on Sunday night, also reported that he had dropped the outlook – which left the prospect of an economic agreement weeks.

This is despite the fact that British ministers believe that the agreement is ready, after concessions that include Britain agreeing to abandon plans for a digital service tax on US technical firms, the newspaper reports.

Our business and gel editor Karl Matchett Reports:

After yesterday’s market drops in response to the upcoming rates and more relevant, the extensive uncertainty about exactly who they will affect and how much London sees on something of a setback.

The FTSE 100 is about 0.6 percent higher than a whole after an hour or so, even with a slight decrease in a quick boom at the beginning of the day.

Individually, more than 80 of the 100 largest listed firms in the UK are in a positive area for the day so far from a share price perspective, with only five showing a drop of more than 0.5 percent.

It is noteworthy that some of the biggest profits are those who had a bit of hits yesterday: holidays and hotels in Easyjet (2.4 percent), plus rentokile (2.6 percent), a business with a significant and growing business base.

A trade war with Donald Trump is not in Britain’s interest, Sir Keir Starmer insisted, while also claiming that “we should have all options on the table”.

Sir Keir told Sky News: ‘I’m not going to have a tranquil and collected reaction to this, and I’m not talking about the most affected sectors, and I don’t think what’s getting best.

‘Of course, we are negotiating an economic agreement, which I will hope that it will handle and soften the rates. That is, I think, where most people want it to land. [I] Can’t predict the future for it, but we’re working hard on it.

“I don’t think a trade war is in our interest – but the national interest is of course what I am led for, which is why we must have all options on the table.”