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Washington – The elections in Florida and Wisconsin have become key tests of President Donald Trump’s political situation for two months in his second term in the White House.
The Marquee Competition Tuesday is for a swing place in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a technical non -party election that has derived at least $ 90 million in costs. Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk supports conservative judge Brad Shiml, while progressive billionaires and Democrats support Liberal Susan Croford.
Two Republican congressions in Florida could give GOP some breathing room in a closely divided camera. But the Democrats in both areas were far beyond their GOP counterparts, and the national Republicans were publicly concerned about the Mike Walk replacement race, now Trump’s National Security Advisor.
Here are the places you need to watch when the results of the votes are reported in the election night:
In all Wisconsin state elections, Democrats tend to win with large margins in the settlements of Milwauki and Dane (Madison’s House). But the size of this victory is usually a big factor in who wins throughout the country, especially in a nearby competition.
In 2024, the candidate for democratic President Kamala Harris transferred Milwaukee with 68% of the vote and the Danish by 75%, while losing throughout the country. That evening, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin traveled about 2 percentage points in front of Harris in both cities and won a re -election closely.
In 2023, the Supreme Court of the Democratic Party Supreme Court Janet Protasevich received 73% of the votes in Milwaukee and 82% of the vote in Dane and continued to win throughout the country with a margin of 11%.
Republicans tend to do well in the suburban counties Milwaukee in Washington, Omuki and Wokesha-so called “wow” Counts. Strong Republican display in these counties can help counteract democratic advantage in urban areas. Republican candidates transferred all three districts to all major state elections, which returned until at least 2016.
Republican candidates tend to win Brown County, which is Green Bay’s home, but not of huge blowing. Trump carried the county to all three presidential campaigns with between 52% and 53% of the vote.
But after the 2016 election, there were two Democrats who wore Brown County and continued to win throughout the country: Tony Evers in their candidate as governor in 2018 and recently Protasiewicz in her Supreme Court race in 2023.
Democrat can still win throughout the country without winning Brown (like Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the re -election of Evers in 2022 all three of the Senate of the US Senate of Baldwin). But if they wear Brown, it will probably be a rough night for the Republicans.
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a competitive government area, which usually ultimately supports the Democrat candidate, though with thin margins. It falls somewhere in the middle of the 72nd Wisconsin counties with respect to the population, and the margins are usually so small that elections across the country are usually not won or lost in Sauk.
Democrats or the candidates supported by Democrats had a long winning series in Sauk, transferring the county to eight of the last 10 major state elections. But the two exceptions are remarkable: Trump wore Sauk in 2016 and 2024 when he won Wisconsin and the White House.
While Sauk probably will probably not put a decisive role in the Tuesday election, the victory there by a candidate supported by Republicans can be a good sign for the party across the country.
Democrats are encouraged by strong performances to raise their nominees to replace Waltz and former Florida Matt Garets reporter, but the special elections are held in two congresses, which are long overdue.
Trump received about 68% of the vote in 2024 at the 1st Florida Panhandle Congress, slightly superior to 66% Gaetz obtained in his re -election application. In the 6th Congress District of the Atlantic coast, Trump received approximately 65% of the vote, just behind the 67% waltz obtained in its latest candidacy for re -election of the Chamber.
The four districts, which make up the 1st district, voted for the candidates for the Republican president almost continuously in the last 60 years. Only Walton County went to Democrat once since 1960, although all four voted for the candidate independent of the Democrats George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of the Walton County, which fell into the first county, is the most reliable republican of the four counties.
Republican presidential candidates have transferred all six counties to the 6th counties for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning series in some of the counties has extended for decades before. Lake County, for example, did not support Democrat for President after Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where the two received about 74% of the votes.
If Democrats manage to withdraw disorders either in the 1st or 6th area, the first indications can be in their best cities.
Given the Republican advantage in both areas, the best areas of Democrats are still places where Republicans performed well. In the 1st district of Trump and the Raikar, they did the relatively worse in Ekamban County, although they still received 59% and 57% of the district votes respectively.
In the 6th district, Democrats can do the best in Volume County, where Trump received 58%and waltz received about 60%. Republican presidential candidates were transferred in the last four elections, but the area was more friendly territory for the Democrats who won the county for six consecutive elections from 1992 to 2008.
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