NDP says it has ‘momentum’ as it stares down electoral collapse

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The first reading is the Canadian Political Newsletter, which is a summary of the campaign every day throughout the 2025 elections, curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an earlier version delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here.

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The NDP’s first official action after Sunday’s election was to issue a statement saying they were experiencing “record-breaking momentum.”

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“We are ready for this election,” NDP campaign director Jennifer Howard said in a statement.

In fact, the NDP is entering the sport with shaky finances and some of the worst poll numbers they have drawn. If the party can’t turn things around in the next five weeks, they’ll likely be staring at the worst election performance since its inception in 1961.

The number of NDP polls has been in a state of rapidity since January 7, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced plans to resign, laying the foundation for Mark Carney’s replacement.

Before Trudeau’s resignation, the New Democratic Party (NDP) spent years wandering between 15% and 20% of the popular vote. This is roughly consistent with their performance in the 2021 federal election, when NDP accounted for 17.8% of the total vote.

But especially in recent weeks, multiple pollsters have drawn the NDP in unit numbers. The March 17 poll of the Angus Reid Institute brought them to 9%, while the March 24 Pallas data poll dropped them by as much as 8%.

If those numbers continue until Election Day, the NDP may eventually face the almost complete annihilation of their caucus, which stood as 24 lawmakers as of Sunday’s election call.

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The recent forecast of election model Raymond Liu predicts that the NDP’s core group will only be seated on April 28. Liu’s predictions are based on Pallas’ data number, showing NDP support and gaining 11.9% support.

Since the party was founded, the NDP has participated in 20 federal elections to restart the federal federation of the 1930s era. The two-seat caucus is easily ranked as the worst performance ever for the Federal New Democratic Party. The NDP’s worst history so far still belongs to 1993, when it won only nine seats under leader Audrey McLaughlin.

The whereabouts of support is closely tracked in proportion to liberal support, suggesting that even long-time New Democratic voters appear to stamp the Liberal Party under new leader Mark Carney.

The election calls also appear as the New Democrats have tapped out of millions of dollars in financial loopholes created in the last election.

The party was forced to set aside $20 million in loans to cover the expenses during the last election, and only last year did the party’s brass declare the debt had been paid.

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In the New Democratic Party’s recent audited financial statements – in fiscal 2023 – they had only $289,808 in cash on hand and had little to have enough money to cover the travel expenses of leader Jagmeet Singh.

The New Democrats raised $6.3 million in 2024, although that lag behind the $15.2 million brought by the Liberals and an unprecedented $41.8 million brought by the Conservatives.

But in Sunday’s statement, the NDP still stated that it intends to spend the maximum amount allowed by the Canadian election. In the 2021 election, it will be about $30 million. “This is the first time in a decade that the NDP has spent the maximum limit allowed by the Canadian election,” the NDP released.

Otherwise, Sunday’s “record breaking momentum” statement mainly refers to the New Democratic candidate, which the party said is more developed than in 2021.

“There are more nominees than the liberals and more than when the writ fell in 2021,” Howard said.

As of press time, the party’s official website had 130 candidates out of 343 federal cycling, while the 197 candidates on the official website of the liberals may not represent the total number of confirmed candidates.

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Policy Corner

The first major commitments of the 2025 campaign are tax-related.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has pledged tax cuts on the lowest income tier, down from 15% to 12.75%. This is in the exact same situation that liberal leader Mark Carney promised to cut taxes, but smaller (he promised to cut it by one percent).

Both promises are worth noting, as Canadian politicians have promised tax cuts. They usually prefer to get more complicated in the form of boutique tax credits or tested benefits.

oops

This is the first time in Canadian history that two main candidates to run for Prime Minister on a ride in the Ottawa area. Since 2004, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has represented the riding in the heart of Ottawa. Liberal leader Mark Carney announced that he would run on a cycling in neighboring Nepal. Carney told reporters he knew he had ridden well from Ottawa for years at the Canadian Bank and Treasury, saying he was familiar from “Balhaven to Bells Point and somewhere in between.” There is only one problem: the bell corner is not on the ride.

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