MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays, April 13

Well, there were certainly some nerve-wracking moments in yesterday’s Pirates-Reds Under, but thankfully, the bet holds true and continues this strong start to the season. Never get content. 

To conclude the major league campaign’s third week, we’re going to head to George M. Steinbrenner Field for the first time. That’s where the Tampa Bay Rays are playing their home games this year (and beyond?) after the wreckage Tropicana Field endured last fall at the hands of Hurricane Milton and they’ll be taking on the Atlanta Braves today in the series finale after both clubs split the first two matchups.

Just like with the Athletics playing in a new ballpark in Sacramento, you should want to take a wait-and-see approach in noting how these new venues play out, at least in the early going. After all, this is a spring training stadium – belonging to the New York Yankees – we’re dealing with and it’s curious to observe how the games play out during regular season months in the typically hot Florida air. 

Remember, the Rays and Miami Marlins both host action indoors at their normal home fields, so the typically hotter Florida air is never really a factor within a season – until now. 

Tampa Bay has had 11 home games thus far and those contests produced a total of 84 runs combined – or an average of 7.6 runs per game. So, nothing really out of the ordinary, at least until we reach the hotter summer portion of the slate.

That hopefully means for now we can still just focus on deciphering the pitching matchup in order to score a duke on the betting record. And there’s a good one on tap Sunday afternoon.

Reigning National League Cy Young award winner Chris Sale is starting for the Braves and that’s something that should always stick out right away. Despite carrying a surprising 6.75 ERA through his first three starts, we know the eight-time All Star is much better than that and will begin bringing that number down very soon. Most likely beginning today with an opponent on the other side whom he’s had exceptional success against. 

In 25 career games (23 starts) facing the Rays, Sale is 11-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. More impressively, he’s punched out 206 batters in these outings, spanning 148 innings. That’s a strikeout rate of 12.5 K/9. 

Something vital that can help the 6-foot-6 southpaw construct another such performance is that Tampa Bay has struggled mightily when taking on a left-handed pitcher. They’re one of nine teams in baseball hitting below the Mendoza Line (.200) against lefties and the Rays’ .586 OPS as a team in this department ranks them 24th in baseball. 

Tampa’s lineup presents a favorable matchup for Sale to begin normalizing his statistics. 

The more difficult part of this bet, however, figures to come from the other starter, Joe Boyle. The hard-throwing right-hander is making his season (and team) debut. 

Boyle came from the Athletics in the offseason and did show some worthwhile potential previously. He has an ability to accumulate the strikeouts – but with that comes some shoddy command.

Overall, though, I do buy into the 25-year-old as someone that can put a lot of it together and establish himself at the major league level. Boyle’s talents were certainly on display through spring training, in which he crafted a 3.52 ERA across 15 1/3 innings while notching 21 Ks.

One of those outings came with Atlanta opposing him – and it was with their ‘A’ batting order in action, too. Boyle fared pretty well, retiring the first six hitters he faced before allowing pair of runs with two outs in his final inning. He shackled all four of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna to a combined 1-for-8 with four strikeouts on the day. 

Atlanta is second from the bottom in runs scored (46) this year, and while they likely aren’t going to remain anchored down there, it’s still something to lean on in terms of avoiding a crooked output. If Boyle can just contribute something satisfactory like he’s capable of, this under bet will be in good hands. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-118, FanDuel) 

2025 MLB Betting Record: 10-6-1, +3.23 units 

Over/Unders: 9-4-1 

Props: 1-1 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Reds Under 8.5 (WIN) 

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated. 

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