Maui mayor’s plan to phase out vacation rentals would increase housing but shrink the economy

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An unprecedented proposal by Maui’s Mayor to phase out holiday rentals would alleviate a serious housing shortage that was exacerbated by the 2023 wildfires, but also the economy would shrink, economists from the University of Hawaii said in a report published on Monday.

Mayor Richard Bissen launched the policy idea last year to boost Maui’s limited offer of long -term housing after the fires wiped out more than 3,000 residential units in Lahaina.

Trey Gordner, one of the authors of the study and a researcher at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, said there are always trade -in related to these kinds of decisions.

“We find that the policy will somewhat increase the affordability of housing at the expense of jobs, income and tax revenue,” he said. According to the report, visitor spending is likely to decline.

The mayor’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

About one third of Maui’s visitors use holiday homes. It tends to cost less than hotels and is easy to discuss on websites such as Airbnb and VRBO. Many have workspaces and kitchens so that people can work remotely and families can prepare their own food.

They also became a source of tension on Maui, especially after the Lahaina wildfire – the deadliest in the US in more than a century – destroyed so much housing.

According to the report, the mayor’s proposal is unique on scale because the vacation rent in question accounts for 21% of Maui County’s housing stock. In contrast, holiday rental regulations in Los Angeles affected 0.9% of the local housing and those in Barcelona affected 2.6%, the report states.

The policy would pick up up to 6.127 holiday units at Maui’s long-term house, increasing the offer by 13%.

Since only about 600 new housing units are built in the province each year, it would be equivalent to a decade’s new housing development. Condo prices will fall 20-40%, estimate the study.

Most of the affected owners would not be Maui residents, as 85% of Maui’s apartment-zoned holiday owners are from out-of-state-of-state California and Washington-Sovel as Canada.

A further advantage would be that the switch from the units to long -term housing would not require the province to develop additional water resources that are barely on Maui.

At the same time, the study predicted that the policy would eliminate a quarter of the visitor’s accommodation of Maui County and shrink visitor spending by 15%. About 1,900 posts or 3% of the country’s payroll would disappear.

The gross domestic product will contract by 4% and property taxes are likely to fall by up to $ 60 million annually.

The report said that the province could achieve some of the desired housing increase with less economic disruption if it increased tax on holiday rentals, taxed and adopted zoning and allowing reform.

Another approach is a different approach to limiting the number of holiday rental licenses and auction them.

Steven Bond-Smith, an assistant professor at the university and co-author, said he was unaware of a community that did so with vacation rental, but it is a common practice for taxi medals and is used to manage fisheries.

The auction of licenses will push less profitable units out of the holiday rental market because the cost would not justify the expense, the report states.

The university conducted the study at the request of the Hawaii Community Foundation, a non -profit organization.

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