Liberals now leading Conservatives in exclusive new poll

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Election calls are expected in a few days, and a new national poll shows liberals leading the Conservative Party with three points.

A new National Postal poll shows that 42% of Canadians now say they plan to vote for Mark Carney’s liberals, while 39% say they intend to vote for Pierre Poilievre’s conservatives.

It’s an amazing recovery from the Carney liberal polls. The party’s support, which has been ruling since 2015, plummeted last year. The Conservative Party has a great leadership, which suggests that the election will lead to free elimination of the House of Commons and super-contributed led by Poilievre.

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However, this seems suspicious. Justin Trudeau resigned in early January, then elected Carney as the leader of the liberals and surged in patriotism following the threat of annexation from U.S. President Donald Trump, a major recovery in the polls over the past few weeks.

“It’s the cherry of Sundae,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice president of central central Canada operations at Leger. “It’s an amazing comeback.

The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, struggles in a distant third, with only 9% of Canadians planning to vote for the party.

“It’s very low in history,” Ens said. He said such progressive votes may be turning to liberals. “This is a strong election lawyer they are currently working on.”

Québécois has 5% support.

Polls also found Poilievre’s net score among Canadians was bad: 49% said they had a negative view of conservative leaders, while 39% believed Carleton’s MPs were good. By comparison, Carney, who served as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis, had a rating of 46%. Only 28% say they have a negative view.

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But there is a wildcard: 28% say they don’t know enough about Carney to comment, while only 12% say to Poilievre, suggesting that an effective movement to define Carney as Canadian (by conservative or liberal) (by Conservative or liberal) may start to divert Carney’s ratings.

“There are some cautionary messages,” said Ens. “I’m sure you talk to political strategists and they’ll also say there’s a risk there because those unpainted canvases, just be careful who gets the brushes, because they start filling it the way they want, which can be a problem.”

Liberals seem to be where a lot of votes change

Carney is also widely regarded as the best place to deal with the challenges facing Canada. 45% say Carney is best suited to growing Canada’s economy, while Poilievre is 31%. 42% say Carney is the best person to manage Trump, while Poilievre is 29%. Carney’s Poilievre (40% and 13%) for climate change is also widely favored.

However, voters are slightly skeptical of Carney while making life more affordable. Only 37% say he has the best position, while 32% think Poilievre is the best suit for the task. Poilievre also led Carney to reduce government spending (36% ves 32%) and on increasing the Canadian Armed Forces (33% versus 26%).

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The Canadian Atlantic is the only region that has won the majority of voters: 51% of Atlantic Canadians say they will vote for Carney’s team, while 32% say they will vote conservatively. Ten percent of the Atlantic provinces say they plan to vote.

In Quebec, the conservatives in Poilievre received 23% support, ranking third, behind the liberals (40%) and Bloc Québécois (24%). The New Democrats have only 6% of their voters in Quebec.

ENN describes Quebec’s free growth as “astronomy.”

“I don’t remember the last time they were in Quebec, which was largely at the expense of Québécois,” said Ens. (There are not much declines in Quebec – they have traditionally hovered at 25%.)

On the Ontario-rich seats, Leger found that liberals received 44% support, two points ahead of the Conservatives, while the New Democrats landed in 9% support.

Only in the Prairie Province, conservatives maintain leadership. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 52% of voters said they would vote for the Conservatives, while 40% said they would vote freely. Although the NDP has a NDP provincial government in Manitoba, it is in a grim strait in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with only 5% support.

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In Alberta, liberal support is only 31%, while conservative support is 55%, and New Democrats support is 11%.

In recent British Columbia, a provincial election was recently held between the provincial New Democrats and the BC upstart conservatives, with liberals maintaining a nine-point lead, supporting 46% support, compared to 37% for the Conservatives. Only 13% of British Columbians intend to vote for Singh’s party.

“They (liberals) did chew on the NDP vote in British Columbia,” Ens said.

Conservatives still retain the leadership of Canadian men: 43% say they will vote conservatively, while 40% say they will vote for liberals. Among women who tend to vote for progress, 45% say they will vote for liberals, while 34% say they plan to vote for conservative votes.

For more than a year, one of the main storylines of the Canadian poll has been conservative support from young Canadians, particularly affected by the increase in cost of living and the reduction in hopes of home ownership. In September 2024, a Leger poll showed that among young people aged 18 to 34, 47% plan to vote conservatively, while only 14% plan to vote for liberals.

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The gap disappeared. Liberals and conservatives now have 38% support. The only age group that the Conservatives retain lead is the age group of 35 to 54, with 43% planning a conservative vote while 37% planning to vote. (In October 2024, 45% planned to vote conservatively, while 21% planned to vote freely.)

Among those aged 55 and older, 49% plan to vote for liberals, while 35% plan to conservatively plan.

At least part of the story is a collapse in demographic support for NDP. Back in October, 23% of those aged 18 to 34 will vote, with 18% of those aged 35 to 54 and 12% of those aged 55 and over. NDP support fell to 11%, 10%, and 6%, respectively.

“It was the collapse of the NDP that did happen, and the fact is that for a variety of reasons, liberals seem to be where a lot of votes change,” Ennes said.

A poll was conducted between March 14 and March 16, with 1,568 respondents surveyed online. Results This was weighted based on age, gender, native language, region, education and presence of children in the family to ensure a representative sample of Canadian population. The probability sample of this size will produce a margin of error no more than Plus or negative 2.47%.

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