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A new poll shows that the Liberals continue to lead the federal election race, but the Conservatives close the gap.
Global News’ latest IPSOS poll shows that 42% of Canadians surveyed will vote for liberals, down four points from last week, the first time the party has started to lose its stance. The Conservatives improved by two points by 36%.
“The momentum of liberals is falling,” said Darrell Bricker, IPSOS’s public affairs CEO.
“This is the only good news since Conservative Mark Carney became the leader of the Liberal Party.
11% of voters surveyed said they would support the New Democrats, a point down from last week. The Greens also fell by a point to 2%, while the Quebec Group maintained 6% support nationwide, accounting for 25% of Quebec voters.
The share of uncertain Canadians has risen by 4 points to 11% ahead of leaders’ debate this week in Montreal, according to the poll.
Liberal leader Mark Carney loves to win the English debate, with 41% saying so, while 34% say conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will win the French language debate.
After three weeks of the campaign, 33% of Canadians said they were more likely to vote for the Liberal Party since the campaign began, while 25% said the same thing to the conservatives.
Instead, 33% say they are less likely to vote for conservatives now than they were three weeks ago, while 27% are far away from the Liberal Party.
Only 9% of voters surveyed said they were more likely to choose the New Democratic Party, while now a smaller 32% were likely to be.
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“If these numbers persist, the NDP will be hard to stay on the hang of the decision,” Brick said.
“Those who think the country doesn’t work for them tend to vote for Pierre Poilievre and conservatives because they think they are the only change (vote) on the vote.”
The share of those seeking to change leadership has increased by three points since last week, with 56% saying it was time for the new leader to take over, while 44% said liberals should be re-elected.
When asked which party leader would be the best prime minister, Canadians are still choosing Carney over Poilievre.
However, Carney’s support has dropped 4 points to 41% since last week, while Poilievre scored four points and received 36% support. New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh remained stable at 12%.
Poilievre also appears to be driving the issue of which leader best deals with U.S. President Donald Trump and protects Canada from tariffs and other trade policies.
While nearly half of voters surveyed still see Carney as the toughest negotiator in future negotiations with Trump – and it is best to unite Canadians, drive Canadians hubs away from the U.S. and “have the skills” to address Trump’s economic hardship – Poilievre has raised support for these issues since last week.
It is worth noting that while 42% said Poilievre would “renovate and accept President Trump’s demands for trade and security”, the number of Canadians that same has risen by 5 points to 27%.
Carney, who served as caregiver during the campaign, said in a call with Trump last month that the two leaders agreed to “full talks” between the U.S. and Canada for bilateral relations after Canadians elected a new government.
Ipsos asked the next administration what steps should be taken to help Canadians affected by Trump tariffs, with 46% saying they want lower income taxes, followed by 41% saying they want to address affordability. Nearly 30% support temporary rest for GST or HST, while small business tax breaks, companies subsidize new jobs, lower corporate taxes and homebuyer support get smaller support shares.
Ipsos found affordability and cost of living remained the top three-week issues, but the number of Canadians rose by 5 points to 41 per cent from two weeks ago.
Although the poll found that U.S.-Canada relations were the second issue, it has since lagged behind the economy, health care and housing. The number of Canadians who chose it as the first question fell by 6 points to 24%.
After being tied to the Liberal Party last week, the Conservative Party is now narrowly seen as the best party to handle affordable. Meanwhile, liberals now regard conservatives as the best party to resolve our relationship in the eyes of Canadians, 62 points.
Brick said this evolution could explain what drives the momentum of new discoveries among conservatives.
“If this election is about dealing with Trump and tariffs, then the Liberal Party’s position is very strong,” he said.
“Conservatives are more competitive if they are to deal with affordability.”
These are some of the findings from the IPSOS poll conducted from April 8 to October 10, 1025 representing global news. In this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians over 18 years of age in Canada won nominal incentives through IPSOS I-SAY panel and non-panel sources. Quota and weights were used to balance demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflects the composition of the adult population based on census data and provides results designed to approximate the sample universe. The accuracy of IPSOS polls includes non-probability sampling, measured using reputation intervals. In this case, if all Canadians are surveyed, the accuracy of the poll is within ±3.8 percentage points and within 20 times. The credibility interval will be larger in the subset of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage errors and measurement errors. ipsos comply with the disclosure standards established by CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
& Copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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