Indian markets more at risk from US economic fallout than direct tariffs, warns Samir Arora

Indian markets more at risk from US economic fallout than direct tariffs, warns Samir Arora


India’s stock market is more vulnerable to shocks from the United States economy than from direct tariffs imposed on the country, warned Helios Capital’s founder and chief investment officer, Samir Arora, on Wednesday.

“I think the biggest risk to the Indian market is not tariffs applied to India but what happens to the US market and economy due to various tariffs, which then affects other markets and sectors like Indian IT,” Arora wrote on microblogging site, X (formerly Twitter).

Arora’s remarks come as market participants brace for a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs from the U.S., set to take effect on April 2—a date President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.” The uncertainty surrounding the scope of these measures has fueled concerns over global trade tensions, inflation, and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy.On Tuesday, Indian stock markets saw their steepest one-day fall in a month, dragged down by IT and private banking stocks. The selloff reflects growing anxiety over the ripple effects of a weakening U.S. economy, particularly in sectors reliant on American demand.

Arora had previously flagged the risk on March 10, noting a shift in sentiment. “How times change: Till recently investors were selling out of Indian market (& others) to buy into US market and now the biggest risk to India is the weakness in the US market,” he wrote.

Despite Tuesday’s losses, broader Indian markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rebounding, led by IT and banking stocks. Investors remained cautious ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement, scheduled for 1:30 a.m. IST on Thursday.

The White House has said the tariffs will take effect immediately after the announcement. A strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields are adding to concerns over foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows into emerging markets like India.

Also read | This bear market is not like 2000 and 2008: Samir Arora

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)





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