Govt ‘Dreaming’ about huge planting plan

The government’s claim to be on the way to net emissions from zero to 2050 is based on private companies that plant pines in hundreds of thousands of crown land, official modeling shows.

The government of the coalition says that the country is on the way of liquid zero by 2050, with Minister Simon Watts saying that the coveted goal could be achieved in 2044.

The underlying modeling to these claims has been disclosed now, showing that this would imply 280,000ha of new pines being planted in public lands.

This is the equivalent of all private agricultural lands + Lamb says it has been converted to carbon agriculture since 2017.

Critics say this would be equivalent to the privatization of stealth and the ministers are wrong to think that there is a low -value land to plant.

“I think they are dreaming if they think this is the case,” said Gary Taylor of the Environmental Defense Society.

“Would you plan Molesworth station in Pinheiros? Molesworth, which is New Zealand’s largest farm, is only 160,000 hectares, so the numbers here are huge.”

Nicola Toki, by Forest and Bird, said carbon forestry would lock the public land forever.

“It’s worrying if the government thinks that planting Pinheiros is our climate salvation.

“It seems a bit like a bit of public conservation heritage for stealth,” she said.

The National Party is clear that a key board of its climate policy is allowing private companies to plant trees about what it considers low -value crown lands.

Planting is programmed to absorb more than 15 million tons of carbon dioxide between now and 2050 and is one of the few large policies that aim to achieve the country’s goals.

But the level of pine plantation that can be involved was not clear so far.

The economic modeling of the Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) was released under the official information law for climate policy expert Christina Hood. She said she wanted to understand how forest numbers added to New Zealand’s climate targets.

“The emission reduction plan released in December was a little vague about how much extra planting would be necessary to close the emission gap – it turns out that it is much higher than I expected,” she said.

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts said modeling was inherently uncertain and real planting levels would depend on a number of factors, including land characteristics.

He said no decision was made in the mix of planted species – but there was a “promising” interest of the market in planting pines and native trees.

Asked if 280,000 hectares of Pinheiro on public property would be a good result, he said that the planting of exotic trees for logs and/or carbon kidnapping “could be a more efficient use of unproductive land.

However, modeling shows whether planting levels fall short of the assumptions, New Zealand would be out of the way for liquid zero by potentially millions of tons.

Watts says the government will adjust if necessary.

How many trees?

Reaching zero liquid for long -term gases is consecrated in New Zealand’s law and international obligations in the country.

The “long life gases” mentioned on liquid zero target are carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide – a long -term greenhouse gas produced by agriculture. It does not include methane, a short life gas, which is also mainly agriculture.

The modeling of tree planting MPI supported the government’s projections in December, showing that New Zealand was on the right track for Net Zero in 2050.

Both Watts and First Minister Christopher Luxon cited liquid zero projections when criticized about climate change.

Modeling shows these trees on crown lands sucking about 5 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2050, almost exactly what is needed to compensate for nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.

The reason why most trees will be pine trees is that the pine tree is cheaper to plant than native trees and generates carbon credits faster.

Generating a return is important because the government has not allocated any financing to politics.

In total, to obtain the necessary carbon economy, MPI assumed that 330,000 hectares of trees would be planted in crown lands, 280,000 hectares of them.

Of these pines, 230,000 hectares would be permanent carbon forests (not for harvesting), with another 50,000 hectares dedicated permanently to logging.

This would be sufficient to get zero liquid in 2050.

If the real planting is smaller, the government will face a climate hole.

Low or high value?

Toki said the estimates were just shaping and it is unlikely to be realistic, which means the government needed a climate backup plan.

She suggested control of pests in native forests to increase carbon storage.

She and Taylor said any planting of conservation land should involve native trees.

A desktop survey for the government identified about 760,000 hectares of crown land that could be suitable for planting. This was based on land that were not in a national park, or were already forest.

The government believes that much of this land is of low value and mature for other uses.

But the land has not been examined regarding conservation or agricultural value before the government makes a request for expressions of interest.

Taylor said the land was on most high country agricultural lands, or important conservation lands that were in a “retention pen” awaiting classification.

Meanwhile, Toki said a recent revision of the west coast conservation lands had discovered that only 0.01 % was low enough of value that could be discarded.

She said that much of the conservation land that the government was talking was visually indistinguishable from national parks – and sometimes beside them.