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As a tropical cyclone Alfred vessels to the east coast of Australia, Brisbane residents are to the north of New South –walis to see a storm event in more than half a century.
The cyclone, currently a category 2 system, is expected to fall between the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast early Friday, bringing destructive winds, life-threatening floods and coastal erosion to some of Australia’s densely populated areas.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Alfred could possibly reach a Category 3 status, but the chances of it staying low. However, the storm is expected to remain at the stronger end of Category 2 if it falls.
Click here for direct updates on Cyclone Alfred
This means that winds of up to 150 km / h per hour will be areas of Queensland and NSW, with rainfall total up to 600 mm, enough to swell rivers and create flood risks in a wide, very populated region.
Queensland Prime Minister David CrisaFulli called Cyclone Alfred an ‘extremely rare event’ while asking residents to heed warnings.
The last time Brisbane reached a tropical storm so close to his banks, it was 1990. Gold Coast’s mayor Donna Gates said in terms of destructive winds and heavy rain, the city has not seen anything like this since 1952.
But it’s not just the size of the storm dealing with experts – that’s how it moved.
Most cyclones formed in the Coral Sea follow a typical pattern: they trace southeast, away from the Australian coastline, while being trapped in the middle of the western winds.
But Alfred did the opposite. It initially moved south to the sea and traveled parallel to the east coast of Australia, and then took a sharp turn west to the eastern coast of Australia.
Dr Liz Ritchie-Tyo, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Monash, explains that this shift is due to Alfred’s interaction with a middle-width – A low -pressure system that extends northward and changed the storm’s movement.
“When tropical cyclones interact with a mid-width trough, they undergo a process called extratopic transition,” she says. “During this process, they can re -intensify in a hybrid system, sometimes even stronger than the original tropical cyclone.”
While the middle-width trough is moving east, Alfred was left under the influence of the subtropical reef, which pushes it westward to the southeast coast of Australia.
“This sharp westward is unusual,” she said.
Historically, tropical cyclones tend to weaken before reaching southeast of Queensland and northern New South Wales due to cooler waters and wind shaving -changes in wind direction and speed that can break a cyclone. But that doesn’t happen to Alfred.
“Tropical cyclones are normally contained north of the 25-degree parallel, but we still see them further south,” says Dr. Tom Mortlock, head of climate analysis Asia-Pacific.
“The last serious cyclones to fall near Brisbane were Dinah in 1967 and Wanda in 1974. The 1954 cyclone, which caused the ‘great flood’ in northern NSW and Southeast -Queensland, is the best historical comparison. ‘
The fact that Alfred is expected to maintain category 2 intensity if it crosses the coast indicates that oceans are hot enough to maintain tropical cyclones much further south than usual.
Hot Ocean Water – Above 26.5c – And low vertical wind shearing is essential for a cyclone to develop, strengthen and maintain itself. Climate crisis both affect.
Currently, the water on the coast of Sydney has a temperature of 27c, about 1c above average. Rising world temperatures, powered by the burning of coal, oil and gas, increases the temperature of the sea level over the planet, which increases the marine heat waves and attracts hurricanes and cyclones.
In fact, when Alfred developed at the end of February, it formed with two more systems. Although it is not unheard of for two or three tropical cyclones to form from the same trough, it is rare in the South Pacific.
“Tropical cyclones are clearly linked to global warming. Scientists have been showing it out for years, and we now see evidence in real time – stronger storms, which further reach, affect a larger area, ”Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed, associate professor of the University of Newcastle.
“It’s a problem we see worldwide,” adds Dr Mortlock. “Right now, ocean temperatures are hot enough to maintain tropical cyclones as far south as Sydney, which is very unusual.”
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has also become an extraordinary number of storms with 11 of the 18 developing hurricane strength and five major hurricanes. When Hurricane Milton Florida destroyed, scientists found that ‘Bath-Tub Hot’ waters on the coast caused the intensification.
Another big problem is Alfred’s slow movement. The cyclone is currently riding at 14 km / h, but there was concern that it could slow down than the average tropical cyclone, which typically moves between 15-20 km / h.
Several tropical storms in recent years are moving slowly, giving them more time to strengthen and if the system is slowly about cities, it brings more rainfall.
“The system stays longer about the ocean, which means it has more time to feed on hot waters, strengthen and maintain its power before it falls,” said meteorologist Thomas Hinterdorfer The courier post.
“We would prefer a cyclone to get through faster,” he said.
Scientists warn that although tropical storms have always been devastating, the climate crisis makes them stronger, more frequent and more unpredictable.
“We need to start planning for a future where these kinds of storms occur more frequently,” says Dr. Ahmed. “It’s not just a one-time event-it’s the new reality.”
