CSIS director to visit India amid signs of possible diplomatic thaw

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OTTAWA – CSIS Director Daniel Rogers will attend an intelligence meeting chaired by the Indian spy chief, the first publicly announced gathering of senior security officials since a tense meeting in October brought about diplomatic expulsion.

Indian media reported that the meeting was held, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government saw Justin Trudeau’s withdrawal as an opportunity to thaw diplomatic relations with Canada.

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Canadian Security and Intelligence Services (CSIS) confirmed that director Daniel Rogers will travel to India to attend a gathering of intelligence chiefs hosted by Modi’s National Security Advisor (NSIS) on March 17.

The meeting, called the Raisina Insights forum, is the eve of the Raisina dialogue, the largest annual security conference in the country.

“CSIS Director Rogers will join other intelligence leaders from around the world in the coming days at the Raisina Insights forum,” CSIS spokesman Lindsay Sloane said in a statement to the National Post on Wednesday.

She added: “He will meet with a range of partners, including from across the Indo-Pacific region, as the region is a key and growing priority for CSIS and the Canadian government to discuss a variety of shared areas of interest.”

This is the first time that CSIS has confirmed the attendance of the Raisina Insights Forum, which was first held in 2022. CSIS rarely (if any) confirms its official travel plans.

US national intelligence company Tulsi Gabbard, Richard Moore of the UK MI6 and intelligence officials from Australia, Germany, New Zealand and many other countries are also expected to participate.

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The seats for the head of intelligence are organized by the Secretariat of the National Security Council of India, led by Doval. Sloan’s statement did not state whether Rogers would hold a bilateral meeting with Doval, although that was not surprising.

It is an understatement to say that the last public meeting between Doval and Canadian government officials ended poorly on October 12.

On October 12, Trudeau’s NSA Nathalie Drouin, RCMP Deputy Commissioner Mark Flynn and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs David Morrison met with Doval in Singapore to discuss the Indian government’s involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and other criminals against Canada.

During the meeting, Doval “refused to acknowledge any contact and deny everything we have raised,” Drouin told members of Congress at a committee meeting on October 29. He then asked Canadian officials to keep the meeting secret until it was reconvened two days later.

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“Instead, the Indian government chose not to respect our agreement, and the next day, Sunday, October 13, once again used its false narrative that Canada showed no evidence,” Dulin testified.

“Through public, the Indian government has clearly shown that it will not be responsible and will not take the actions we need to take to ensure public safety.”

Two days after the meeting, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats – including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma – who said it was someone interested in the Nijjar murder. On the same day, India responded to Tit-Tat and expelled six Canadian envoys, including High Commissioner Stewart Wheeler.

The Indian government calls Canada’s allegations “absurd”.

But there are signs that the Indian government is ready to reset diplomatic relations as Canada seeks new trading partners as its historic massive trade war with the United States.

It is unclear that if Canada is ready to do the same without evidence, the Indian government is taking the RCMP allegations seriously.

Hindus reported this week that the Modi government is considering appointing a new high commissioner in Canada to significantly melt the cold relationship.

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These dynamics are reportedly dual: Trudeau’s exit, and a signal from new Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is interested in exploring opportunities for free trade with a “likely” country like India.

“What Canada is going to do is diversify our dealing relationships with like-minded countries and have the opportunity to rebuild relations with India,” he said in a leadership campaign in Calgary on March 4.

The statement from Canada Global Affairs (GAC) did not address whether Canada is also considering appointing a new high commissioner to India.

“Although the challenges of relationships continue, Canada will continue to seek to work constructively with India,” wrote GAC spokesman Louis-Carl Brissette Lesage.

In an interview, Indo-Pacific and geopolitical expert Jonathan Berkshire Miller said Rogers’ trip to India was a positive signal that Canada hoped to start tinkering with India.

“I think restoring diplomacy in intelligence is a certain important first step,” said senior researcher at the McDonald-Lorier Institute.

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India’s interest, as a potential trading partner, has regained interest as President Donald Trump imposed a large amount of tariffs on Canadian goods while threatening to annex his northern neighbors.

Berkshire Miller said India is the main complex in Canada, albeit in the Canadian market.

“We can’t actually have a successful diversification program with bad relations with China, bad relations with the United States, which is obviously understandable with Russia,” he said. “I think the geopolitical stage is more broadly showing that we are a little urgent to find ways to interact with India.”

“We are on land with bad choices. When you are on land with bad choices, you choose some options that are worse than the others,” he added.

But he and other Canadian envoys warned Indian officials on a visit last month that it would be a slow and cautious process for Canada.

“I think the recovery of the High Commissioner is a great first step, and I think that could happen,” he said. However, Canada cannot replace dozens of Indian diplomats, and for many years, through conversion rates, the Nigar case could have lasted for many years.

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“It may take some time,” he noted.

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