There is a sacred mantra in Canadian politics: movement is important. You’ll hear from experts, professors and people behind local Tim Hortons who think he’s a double for David Akin.
Most of the time, they are right.
But not the way before.
If the old rules still apply in 2025, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives will already measure the curtains in the prime minister’s office. Through each traditional measure, they have carried out a movement that should end with a majority. These ads have been clear and ruthless. The news has been disciplined. This concert tour does not contain scandals and anti-scandals. There are still crowds? A lot. These are not polite gatherings of party loyalists. They were a political rally for a tragic hip show. The kind that makes other leaders nervous.
Meanwhile, Mark Carney and the Liberals offer a movement that, if we are generous, can be described as being restricted. If we are honest, it is sleepwalking. Carney is a lot of things: achievement, expression, global admiration. But he is not a natural campaigner. He is a central banker, not a street politician. In Davos, he was dazzled. At the strip mall in Timmins, he looks like an alien, parking the UFO in the back.
Free activity has little spark, little urgency and little advantage. This is equivalent to beige wallpaper. It’s hard to hate. Easy to ignore.
But, we are here. Liberals are not only competitive, but also lead. As of this week, our polls at IPsos put them 6 points ahead of the conservatives. Just last week, they soared to 46%, the largest number of their campaigns. Since then, they have fallen slightly, down to 42%, while the Conservatives have a 36% advantage. The gap is narrowing. But this is still a gap.
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This shouldn’t happen. But this is. Because what we call “synap” is no longer working as it used to be.
We are in a new era. One is defined not by stability, but by volatility. Loyalty is dead. Identity breaks down. This is an era of loss. Voters are not queuing behind the party. They are browsing. Politics has become a deal, a one-time and emotional. Not like the town hall. More like a dating app.
This is not a campaign. This is a speed date.
That is the core of the contradiction. The campaign is still important, but not important, but in an old, linear, narrative-oriented approach. Today, it has nothing to do with the six-week discipline of news. It’s about getting attention within the last 72 hours.
If a rule still exists in modern politics, it is this: late breaks can determine everything.
In the past, most voters had already made up their minds. The movement strengthened these decisions. That world disappeared. Today, this is hesitation. Voters will have the option to open until the end. IPSOS survey shows that as many as one in ten of the final decisions were made on Election Day. In a close match, this is not a rounding error. This is the whole story.
Here’s the kicker: Most polls didn’t even catch it. Field work usually ends for a day or two before the vote. Even if the vote does continue to continue to the wire, that doesn’t matter, because it’s illegal for media to release new poll data on Election Day under the Canadian Election Act. So the numbers darken when the story reaches its most dramatic twist.
What about the debate? They were game-changers. And if someone collapses, they can still score knockouts or spread. But most of the time, they shrugged. The audience’s minds of watching their attention have been made up. Analysts lock it before the last question. Everyone else is half watching while scrolling Instagram.
So, are campaigns important? Yes, but not in six weeks. Only in the last time. Is debate important? Sometimes, only when they pierce the noise.
What is important now is motivation. Not the kind you planned. The kind that is sneaky. The kind that moves quietly in the conversation around the kitchen table. In the hearts of voters, it is still shaken. I was in a turning point and I was late.
That’s where the election is won now. Not on buses or stages within weeks, but in blur in the last few hours, when perceptions harden, motion happens quietly.
Yes, Carney may have reached its peak. Yes, Poilievre may close the gap. But this does not prove that the way of exercise is important. It proves the timing. This impression is late. The last hour is important.
That’s why Poilievre still has a road. So is Carney. But this won’t be decided by the platform, the experts or the vote average.
This will be decided by a restless voter who has not yet made up his mind.
not yet.
But that moment is coming soon. Quickly.
Darrell Bricker is the global CEO of IPSOS Public Affairs
& Copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
