Canada faces recession | Financial Post

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New analysis from Desjardins Group shows that Canada may soon face a recession with new analysis of U.S. presidents of the economy and trade, which will be extended for the rest of the year, according to a new analysis by U.S. President Donald Truff War.

The financial services company called for Canada’s economy to set a 1.3% year-on-year contract in the second quarter, then signed twice in the third and fourth quarters, at 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with the economy rebounding in early 2026.

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The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

“us In Canada, economic policies are expected to block trade, investment, job creation, consumption and growth. ”

The report, with lower economic outlook dispatch, is expected to rise to 7.4% in the second quarter from its current 6.6% and then rise 8% in the third quarter.

Desjardins’ estimates are based on Trump’s policies implemented so far, which include higher tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% energy.

“Although the goods are temporarily exempted (Canadian-Mexico-Mexico) from goods, we can expect more protectionist measures to be taken,” Desjardins said.

The company believes Trump will end these exemptions in April and expand tariffs in other countries, with duties arriving in 2026 reducing taxes on most products from 25% to 10%, from 25% to 10% of energy to zero.

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But some damage has been caused.

“The threat of tariffs is already affecting financial markets and business decisions,” the Bank of Canada said in its January monetary policy report.

The central bank’s report modeled various tariff options, with the U.S. responding to 25% tariffs and Canada’s response and said that at baseline, Canada’s GDP will fall by 2.5 percentage points in the first year, by 1.5 percentage points in the second year, and by lower in the third year.

Another Canadian bank reported how businesses and families responded to trade tensions, saying people planned to spend less because they were worried about their job security and financial situation.

Workers in industries such as oil, mining, manufacturing and agriculture (thinking highly sensitive to trade) are most worried about their jobs.

The report, released on March 12, also said businesses said they plan to reduce hiring and investment plans and raise prices in response to tariffs.

It is no surprise that inflation expectations are rising, the report said.

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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data said inflation rose 2.6% in February, mainly due to the end of the GST/HST interruption. However, there are also signs of rising core inflation rates that eliminate volatile items such as food and energy. Economists expect inflation to continue to rise in tariff threats.

Desjardins said other local barriers would not be of great help to Canada’s economy, which is “a surge in rapid slowing down population growth and mortgage renewals at higher interest rates”.

Statistics Canada said on Wednesday that Canada’s population was slower in 2024, while Ottawa took steps to reduce the total number of temporary residents.

Desjardins said Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of imports would further deepen economic resistance while forcing higher inflation. ”

But the U.S. economy will also feel the heat of tariffs, which is why Des Jardinth expects the Trump administration to eventually “lighten import tariffs” as inflation rises and the possibility of a recession there approaches.

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Desjardins signed US GDP by 0.5% and 0.4% in the second and third quarters, respectively, before rebounding by 1.4% in the fourth quarter.

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Canada’s canola industry includes farmers and the growing crushing and processing industry, as China imposes 100% tariffs on Thursday and operates under the looming U.S. tariff threat, thus entering an era of uncertainty.

Starting March 20, Canada’s canola meals and oil face 100% tariffs from China. Provinces in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba have been lobbying the Canadian government for help from farmers, but no relief has been announced.

Meanwhile, starting April 2, low rapeseed producers are also facing a 25% tariff starting April 2 as part of U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration’s attempt to overhaul trade policy.

Read more about Canadian low rapeseed tariffs and what it means to farmers and beyond. – Michael Joel-Hansen, Saskatoon

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• Prime Minister Mark Carney will host Canada’s Prime Minister in Ottawa today as provinces deal with the impact of Chinese and U.S. tariffs.
• Finance Minister François-Phillip Champagne to meet with provincial and territorial finance ministers in Montreal
• Today’s data: Statistics Canada released retail figures for January and estimated February.
  
• income: Canco Resources Inc.

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