Australia Aukus agreement, which is estimated to cost between $ 268 billion and $ 368 billion, faces pressure since a senator from the United States says that the country is “having problems obtaining these ships and subs in time, under the budget.”
L in the midst of production concerns and steel rates.
Under Aukus, Australia will acquire three nuclear class submarines from the US Virginia. In the early 2030, before a new fleet of ships is built for the delivery of the 2040s.
The agreement lasts until 2075, and countries can cancel the contract with a one -year warning.
Steel rates could create problems
According to reports, American senator Tim Kaine, the most important Democrat in a Senate subcommittee in Seapower, told an Aukus dinner on Wednesday night (local time), the construction of submarines faces the time and budget setbacks.
He said that about a third of steel and aluminum that entered ships and submarines came from Canada and the United Kingdom, which like Australia, now.
“Increase those prices and there will be a problem. Therefore, the first concern I have about the tariff regime is that it is a national sales tax that will really bombard us,” Kaine said at dinner in Washington, who was organized by former Australian Defense Minister, which became the fast Christrower Pyne, according to Nine Newspapers.
David Andrews, a senior policy and participation manager at the University of National Security of the National University of Australia, said that Aukus would probably become more expensive, but that it would be difficult for the federal government to do a lot about it.
“There is no Plan B for Aukus there, it is not a ready replacement or an option ready to use,” he told SBS News.
“Many of these external factors, such as rates, are not under the control of the Australian government to be.”
Will costs increase?
Andrews said that the minimum budgeted cost of $ 268 billion for the agreement would probably increase, but that defense projects have built -in contingencies.
“An increase in steel rates would be a great concern for any project. But there are measures and contingencies to allow that,” he said.
“In this case, there is a 50 percent contingency integrated in the estimated costs, to cover the changes in the costs or delays of the material.”
While the minimum expenditure could increase, Andrews said that the maximum appointment of $ 368 billion could remain the same.
He said that defense projects generally have a contingency of at least 10 percent included in the budget.
Andrews said that steel tariffs should not affect the cost of the three virginia class submarines that the United States will send to Australia the next decade, since they are already built.
However, if the production costs of the new submarines increased, the United States could request more funds from Australia.
Currently, the United States is reviewing the agreement to analyze its profitability.
Andrews said the review, made by Elon Musk, And, it is part of the procedure process and “makes sense” for expensive government projects.
While it is a common place to review the funds, the current administration of the United States has made a series of large cuts to government spending.
Could Donald Trump discard Aukus?
If Trump decides to withdraw from the agreement, then Aukus would be discarded, what an expert in international relations said it could happen if the president of the United States decides that he compromises “national security or deterrence needs” of the United States.
“The United States already faces challenges to meet its own production objectives for nuclear submarines, which raises concerns about its ability to fulfill Aukus’s commitments,” Dr. Minran Liu, from the School of Political Science and International Studies of the University of Queensland, told SBS News.
“Aukus is inherently a commitment to the future of the United States. One that entails serious risks to Australia, including uncertainty about underwater construction, doubts about the long-term commitment of the United States with the Indo-Pacific and unpredictability in the internal policy of the United States.”
Liu said that Australia has little said or control over the national policies of the United States, which means that Aukus’s future is in Trump’s hands.
Andrews acknowledged that Trump has been “unpredictable” in his treatment with other nations, but said his cabinet firmly supports Aukus.
“The key figures in his government, his Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Advisor have expressed his support for Aukus,” he said.
“Come value in it, see a strategic logic that makes sense.”
Albanese ‘Confident’ Aukus will continue
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with journalists on Friday about Aukus, and said that despite steel tariffs, he was confident that the agreement would continue under Trump.
“I am sure of Aukus because I have had those first -hand discussions with the president of the United States, and also with more than 100 members of the Congress, in the Senate during my state visit to the United States,” he said.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, was Minister of Defense when the Aukus agreement between the Australian coalition government and the democratic administration in Washington DC was signed.
He told reporters on Friday that “President Biden didn’t want the agreement” at that time.
“The Americans had not shared their nuclear secrets since the 1950s, and it was a significant result, and we had worked on that.”
Dutton said he demonstrated the ability of his party to deal with “whatever it is presented after the elections.”
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