Billionaire Ray Dalio worried tariff war could spark ‘something worse’ than recession

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“At this time, we are at a decision -making point and very close to a recession,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest coverage funds, said NBC Meet the press Sunday.

“And I worry something worse than a recession if this is not handled well.”

Ray Dalio is photographed on stage at a festival organized by the Wall Street Journal in New York City in May 2024. (He is Pasupil/Getty Images through CNN Newsource)

Dalio, who correctly predicted the financial crisis of 2008, is part of a growing choir, including the main Wall Street banks, worried that tariffs could bechiotibial of the United States economy, the largest in the world.

“If you take tariffs, if you take debts, if you take the growing power that challenges existing power, if you take those factors and observe the factors, those changes in orders, the systems, are very, very harmful.

Dalio added that if tariffs are implemented in a “stable” way or a “chaotic and disruptive way” makes “all the difference in the world.”

Panic on Wall Street while Trump announces new rates

But, until now, the way in which Trump has pursued his tariff plan, designed to redo the manufacture of the USA. And increase jobs and tax revenues, has been “very harmful,” said Dalio, and added that tariffs are “how to throw rocks into the production system.”

Trump’s tariff offensive in the world has caused world market agitation in recent weeks, which increases the fear of an economic recession. Last week, Trump declared a 90 -day break in all “reciprocal” rates, except those imposed on China, which increased at least 145 percent.

However, some Chinese electronic products, including smartphones and computer monitors, will be exempt from that 145 percent, according to a Customs warning and border protection of the United States Posted on Friday. However, these goods are still subject to a 20 percent tax imposed on China.

A recession refers to a sustained decrease in economic activity, often measured by two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth.

President Donald Trump speaks at a cabinet meeting as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth observed in the White House Cabinet room, on Thursday, April 10, 2025 in Washington. (Pool through AP)

Goldman Sachs economists expect a 45 percent probability of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months. Before Trump announced the 90 -day break, they had predicted a recession such as the “base case”, which means that it was very likely to occur.

“The possibility of a recession has increased, with increasing indications that economic activity is slowing down worldwide,” said the company’s CEO, David Solomon, to analysts in a Monday call.

The current levels of uncertainty have “limited” the ability of Goldman Sachs clients to make important decisions, said Salomon. “The fears of the potentially growing effects of the commercial war have created material risks for the United States and the global economy,” he added.

Dalio is worth $ US16 billion ($ 25 billion), according to the Bloomberg billionaire index.

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