Alberta separatists getting organized — a unity challenge for Canada and Danielle Smith’s party

You don’t need to be Preston Manning-like soothsayer Imagine the sentiment of Western separatism would tick upwards if the liberals win reelection.

You just need to remember the 2019 and the Wexit campaign.

Justin Trudeau’s liberals nearly won the second term that fall, while Alberta and Saskatchewan, whose hearts are in a separatist way of branding themselves after Brexit.

But what does it constitute? not much.

While the Wexit Facebook group attracted a large number of followers, assembly drew a Hundreds of people. Within a few months, Covid hit and the dream disappeared.

The 2025 murmur about Alberta’s desire to leave a liberal country occurred in another crisis that attracted attention, this crisis in U.S.-Canada relations.

However, there is a clear difference between the Wexit movement in 2019 and the separatism in 2025, which is not only the accumulated weight of the potential fourth free term this time.

This year, there is a stronger organization – some of them outside of Danielle Smith’s UCP base, some of which are inside her party tent. She talked about the “national unity crisis” that emerged after the election, but another crisis of solidarity could emerge among her own united conservatives.

Alberta’s mindset

Last month, a few days after the federal campaign began, a group of loved ones, Alberta, held a press conference in Calgary. Jeff RathAn Alberta attorney who has been supporting the 51st State Program at Fox News, hosted the event and announced a petition to get a provincial separation referendum this fall.

Mitch Sylvestre was there to speak. He is the president of the UCP Horse Riding Association in northeastern Alberta and leads Alberta Prosperity Projecta pro-dependent organization.

He told the audience last month: “I really believe it’s Alberta’s turn.”

He touted his economic interests in leaving Canada in the booming Alberta, but did hint that the province could use it as leverage.

“If we threaten the government by separation, the government is more likely to come to the table and give us what Quebec has,” he said.

Sylvestre is an influential figure at the grassroots level of UCP. He is the highest character Black Hat Gang Last year prompted joint conservative members to embrace Main extension For the Alberta Human Rights Act, it is farther than the bill that the Smith administration had legislated last fall.

He also served as captain of the conservative radical group Take Alberta, who helped Jason Kenney as prime minister and UCP leader in 2022, and has since helped gain access to Like-minded people Electioned as the Party Board of Directors.

Sylvestre did not respond to a request for comment, but CBC News spoke with Take Rack founder David Parker, who also recently began arguing that Alberta must get out of the way.

“We have to move now, and the spirit of Alberta is still burning with heat.” Write online this month. “Although we still have numbers, courage and willingness to act.”

In an interview, Parker responded to the view of former reform leader Manning that if the Mark Carney liberals win on April 28, the separatist movement would rise.

“Actually, I have my own bubble, but everyone I talk to will be federal and if Carney wins, I’m becoming a separatist.”

Angus Reid’s vote has been shown 25% of people will vote “yes” In Alberta’s independence referendum, depending on the outcome of the federal election, it is possible to gain more support.

The idea of ​​Alberta getting out of Alberta even strikes and even some conservatives when tariffs and the “51st State” threat sparked Canadian nationalism.

“Threat to leave the country because you don’t get the election results you need is counterproductive and unpatriotic,” Kenny told CBC News last week. “And I don’t think that should be thrown away.”

Angus Reid notes that separatist sentiment in Alberta is actually lower than in 2019, but Parker hopes organizers can better utilize post-election sentiment this time.

“Not a lot of people have had a successful bloodline in the previous separatist movement, but I think there are a lot of people who know what they are doing and are pushing now,” he said.

“It will be a very reliable sport and a lot of people know how to organize.”

Besides Sylvestre and probably himself, Parker touted veteran conservative athlete Cam Davies, now known as the Buffalo Party in the low-key separatist party, but has recently renamed it the Republican Party of Alberta.

It’s now quiet, but the party’s website Claims without evidence Some UCP MLAs support provincial independence. Republican President Brittany Marsh also said it would consider running for candidates in two provinces in Edmonton, which could allocate Conservative votes on two NDP stronghold seats.

Meanwhile, the Calgary UCP constituency at the Cavaliers of last year’s vaccine suspicion event is now promoting Activities in June About “building a framework for the Alberta Monarch.” (Speakers are not listed yet.)

Of course, some kind of sovereignty is at the heart of Prime Minister Smith’s contribution. But she always tried her best to distinguish it from separatism, calling her flagship anti-Otawa bill sovereignty in the United Canada Act.

At a conservative meeting in Ottawa, Smith said “Canada is worth fighting for” and even showed off a red toenail polish to express that she was “Canadian until my toes.”

But back at home in Alberta, she highlights how the federal system is broken and that the winners of the federal election need to solve it. Smith Layout Her request If her wishes fail to come true, those nine liberal policies related to oil and gas were abolished and warned of the “national solidarity crisis.”

She told her on the call radio show last weekend. “I tend to adopt a diplomatic attitude. I’ve been straightforward about what I think needs to change. But let’s look at what happened on April 28 so we know what we’re dealing with.”

If Carney remains the prime minister, she will put pressure on him to deal with new frustrations in Western provinces.

But the turmoil at Smith’s conservative base may also require her response.

In Kenny’s response to the 2019 Liberal Victory, Smith says she will create a second “Fair Transaction” group Tour Alberta after the election to assess Alberta’s sentiment towards the Canadian province’s status.

Parker said Smith will “try to walk the rope” after Carney’s election victory. But the grassroots of Ucpers may try to push separatism, which could take action at the annual conference in November.

“I think the party will do its best to calm any movement,” Parker said. But activists who helped Vault Smith get into the leader’s seat said the issue could threaten the safety of her job she won last year in a 91.5% leadership review vote.

“If she’s not handled well, I think it’s likely her failure,” he said.

Another difference between 2019 and 2025 may also prove to be influential. Six years ago, the Zero Liberals won a seat in Alberta.

But Carney was less than two weeks before voting day, leading the polls. CBC’s poll tracker predicts four to 11 Alberta seats could turn red.

It also has an average of 30% free support in the province, higher than in decades. It may also mean that more people want liberals to win, rather than viewing their victory as a tip to leave Canada, which doesn’t say anything to all those who support the vote of conservatives or other political parties.

Danielle Smith serves as prime minister for all Alberta. She will have to figure out how to satisfy their different wishes on April 29 and beyond.