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Many people are already feeling their tightness, with cost of living pressures creating tension for domestic budgets.
Photo: 123rf
There is a warning that tariffs implemented by the United States can lead to higher prices in New Zealand.
NZ said on Tuesday that food prices increased 3.5 % in the year by March.
This was the largest increase in over a year, but is still well below peak in 2023, when prices rose in two -digit percentages.
The largest collaborator of the March increase was the Supermarket Food Group, and meat, birds and fish.
Food prices were lower for fruits and vegetables.
Milk prices increased by 16 %, while butter prices increased 63.6 % in 12 months to March this year.
Chocolate prices rose almost 5 % in Easter and rose 16 % throughout the year.
“The average price for a 250g chocolate block was $ 5.99 in March 2025, which is $ 1.60 more expensive than three years ago,” said Nicola Growden, price and deviations door, Nicola Growden.
FoodStuff Director Chris Quin said that global supply and demand, as well as geopolitical events, was a major influence on food prices.
“World Bank data show that food commodity prices are still more than 25 % more than five years ago in March 2020, when the Covid crisis began, and now we have a new challenge in the form of a trade war between China and the US,” Quin said.
“The logistics teams of our cooperatives say that the shipping costs, which were favorable to New Zealand last year, reached the bottom and probably rose.
“Uncertainty in trade due to new tariffs will probably have consequences, with the times interrupted and the shipping costs increasing.
“So far, China and the US buy billions of dollars a year from food exports to each other.
“Heavy tariffs mean that these goods will probably now be diverted elsewhere. As this affects our customers is not yet to be seen – this can increase some food prices and others.”
Quin said there was pressure on the prices of butter, cheese and milk due to global demand for milk solids.
“Lamb’s leg prices also increased in March, thanks to the strong offshore demand, but also as a result of the difference at this year’s Easter.”
Kelly EckHold, Westpac’s chief economist, said tariffs would be a factor that would affect global commercial trends, but it is not likely to be a dominant factor for New Zealand food prices.
“A more important factor will be what happens with New Zealand’s exchange rate, as most food items are negotiable goods,” said Eckhold.
“A weaker dollar in New Zealand has been a factor that increases food prices. Compensating this can be a weaker global demand that can weigh on commodity prices. In balance, it’s hard to say net impact now.”
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