Conservatives in the lead for first time in federal campaign: new poll

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In the 2025 campaign, a poll showed the Conservatives leading the way.

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A just published survey of Innovation Research has brought 37% of the Liberal Party’s Conservative Party to 38%.

While the results may translate into a liberal government, it is the first of more than two dozen polls since the campaign that began on March 23, which was fronted by the Conservative Party.

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“Conservatives have closed the gap in freedom momentum. Freedom campaigns are still scoring with more people, but their advantage is much smaller,” said the statement from Innovation Research.

Surveys published by seven other major pollsters (Leger, Nanos, Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Angus Reid Institute, Liaison Strategies, Ekos) are all continuing to show that the Conservatives are lagging behind by as much as 9 points.

For example, a nanopoll published Wednesday put 36.7% of the Liberal Party in 45.8%.

A post-Legal poll released Wednesday was 44% for the Liberals and 38% for the Conservatives.

In addition to innovative research polls, the only light for the Conservative Party is the abacus data released on Sunday, showing that the Liberal Party and the Conservatives tied with each other 39%.

But given the “efficiency of free voting,” Abbas noted that the draw is actually a victory for liberalism.

In the past two federal elections, the Conservatives have actually won multiple popular votes, but have won much fewer seats than the Liberals.

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This is due to the fact that liberals excel in tight riding, winning a seat only takes 36% of the time when they win.

By contrast, the prairie MPs occupied by the conservative caucus took extremely safe seats. Any increase in the share of conservative voting in these areas is “wasteful.”

The liberal movement is still getting more points with more people, but their advantage is much smaller

Innovative research polls also bring good news to conservatives. The party is headed in British Columbia, and in Ontario, liberals tied with 41%.

But that’s in stark contrast to this week’s Leger/Postmedia poll, which found the Liberals’ lead in BC and Ontario was 10 points, although conservatives supported more in those provinces than in the last two elections.

In British Columbia and Ontario, Mark Carney’s liberals led 10 points in the conservatives of Pierre Poilievre. Although the forces supporting Poilievre are now higher in both British Columbia and Ontario than in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Innovative research polls also show that both the NDP and the group Québécois have some revivals, both of which could lead to the pruning of the size of any future Liberty Caucus.

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The 2025 election has been defined by wild volatility in the polls and the huge differences between competitive pollsters.

Only three months ago, the Liberal Party was underway to have a historic elimination. Now, a selection of polls makes them like to win one of the most commanding liberals in Canadian history.

As David Coletto of Abacus Data pointed out, one of the variables that pollsters must manage in the 2025 competition is voter voting. Unlike the more vague elections in 2019 and 2021, the more controversial 2025 may cause an increase in voter participation.

As Coletto said in a social media post on Wednesday: “A big disagreement in some polls is what non-voting players will do in 2021.”

Abacus Data attempts to manage this issue by splitting the 2021 non-voteers who plan to vote in 2025. Among the specific population, 40% of liberals have a 31% comfort conservative lead.

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